I'd say that Scenario planning is precisely NOT the sort of thing that helps ensure organizational agility in a high-VUCA context, because is requires a lot of upfront research, then making sense out of it and deriving conclusions - which is an error-prone, biased, time-consuming process.
Your comment repeats the same assumptions the post is criticizing. The notion that upfront research is counter to strategic agility is a misconception. The military, for instance, has researched strategic agility for years, and upfront research is key.
Scenarios are error-prone...of course they are. The point is we do not have a crystal ball. Leveraging research to at least explore possible futures and then building contingencies given the failure of tentpole assumptions is value-adding.
Agile as typically practiced is not really strategic though. It's pure tactics. Maybe that's where we would find some common ground.
I'd say that Scenario planning is precisely NOT the sort of thing that helps ensure organizational agility in a high-VUCA context, because is requires a lot of upfront research, then making sense out of it and deriving conclusions - which is an error-prone, biased, time-consuming process.
Your comment repeats the same assumptions the post is criticizing. The notion that upfront research is counter to strategic agility is a misconception. The military, for instance, has researched strategic agility for years, and upfront research is key.
Scenarios are error-prone...of course they are. The point is we do not have a crystal ball. Leveraging research to at least explore possible futures and then building contingencies given the failure of tentpole assumptions is value-adding.
Agile as typically practiced is not really strategic though. It's pure tactics. Maybe that's where we would find some common ground.